Austria is the country with the highest exposition to East European economy and its problems. Austrian banks has lent about € 234 billions to East European companies or companies investing in Eastern Europe. This development have of course supported the positive earnings results of the bank during the past few years. Now the deadly spiral of credit provisioning and of a restrictive credit policy will follow. As a result, not only will it be harder for company to invest in Eastern Europe, but also to get credits to finance projects in Austria.
Raiffeisen International has just published a first earnings warning. Be prepare for more in the next few months and years. In Bulgaria, the volume of credits of the Austrian Banks is "only 4.5 billions". How much of it will be saved remains open.
From our observation of the Bulgarian market and of the banks' organisation in Bulgaria, it is clear that a very high number of relatively well paid bank clerk jobs will have to go. The productivity of the bank clerks was and still is very low and the organisation inefficient.
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